# s-ai: POTUS races: the MogIA's granular prophecies, by Sanjiv Rai

<< An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House >>

<< MogIA is based on Mowgli, the child from Rudyard Kipling's novel "The Jungle Book." Rai [Sanjiv Rai] said this is because his AI model learns from the environment >>

<< "If you look at the primaries, in the primaries, there were immense amounts of negative conversations that happen with regards to Trump. However, when these conversations started picking up pace, in the final days, it meant a huge game opening for Trump and he won the primaries with a good margin," Rai told CNBC in a phone interview >>

<< Using social media to predict outcomes of elections has become increasingly popular because of the amount of data available publicly. In September, Nick Beauchamp [..] published a paper about his experiment applying AI to more than 100 million tweets in the 2012 election. He found that this closely mirrored the results seen in state-level polling >>

<< Rai said his system would be improved by more granular data  [from] each digital device [..] he could then collect data on exactly what people were thinking >>

Arjun Kharpal. Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system finds. Oct. 27, 2016.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/donald-trump-will-win-the-election-and-is-more-popular-than-obama-in-2008-ai-system-finds.html

Daniele Chicca. Elezioni Usa, per i social media e l’intelligenza artificiale vincerà Trump. 28 ott 2016

http://www.wallstreetitalia.com/news/elezioni-usa-per-i-social-media-e-lintelligenza-artificiale-vincera-trump/

# p-usa: #POTUS race: Donald presidency scares him to death, by Stephen

<< Author Stephen King spoke to Ron Charles, editor of The Washington Post's Book World, during a Facebook Live interview Saturday >>

<< If there's one man who would seem immune to fear, it's Stephen King, the best-selling author and master of horror fiction. But after more than 50 novels, hundreds of short stories and numerous film adaptations of his voluminous work, the 69-year-old still gets spooked >>

<< "A Tump presidency scares me more than anything else," King told Ron Charles [..] "I'm terrified that he'll become president" >>

<<  "I would have laughed three or four months ago, but I think that Trump has a real shot" >>

Peter Holley. Stephen King: ‘A Trump presidency scares me to death’. POST, The Fix. Sept. 24, 2016

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/24/master-of-horror-fiction-stephen-king-says-trump-presidency-scares-me-to-death/

# p-usa: POTUS race: five reasons why Donald will win, by Michael

<< I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but ... >>

Michael Moore.  (www.twitter.com/MMFlint)
5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win
07/23/2016 03:45 pm ET

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-moore/5-reasons-why-trump-will-_b_11156794.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.it/michael-moore/5-motivi-per-cui-donald-trump-vincera_b_11166616.html?utm_hp_ref=italy

FonT: l'articolo di Moore sembra risuonare  dell'echi dai riflessi purpurei di Entita' del tipo << Vico, flagello di Moldavia, travaglio di Carpazia >>  << cio' che e' stato ritornera', cio' che e' non si ripetera' >> (Ghostbusters 2) ; chissa' se la causa  nascosta, sottotraccia, di un ipotetico sottoinsieme non numericamente banale delle Moltitudini che votano (voteranno) Donald possa essere riconducibile alle considerazioni in ambito etologico di M.Palacios, S.Killen (et al.);  talvolta le cause in apparenza piu' semplici ...

http://flashontrack.blogspot.it/2016/04/s-behav-to-comfort-small-fish-by-more.html

# p-trade-TPP: #Potus "in the middle" (?) ...

<< As for President Obama, he must be made to realize that every time he pushes the TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership], he might as well be campaigning for Donald Trump >>

Thomas Palley. Betrayed Again, This Time By Unconvincing Arguments For The TPP. Tuesday, July 05, 2016.

http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/07/05/betrayed-again-time-unconvincing-arguments-tpp

more:

The Trans-Pacific Partnership. What You Need to Know about President Obama’s Trade Agreement

https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/economy/trade

# s-gst: never boring with chaos and tit-for-tat theories

Elena  Holodny. An Ivy  League  professor  explains  chaos theory,  the  prisoner's  dilemma,  and  why math isn't realy  boring. Jun 8, 2016 08:34 PM

http://uk.businessinsider.com/steven-strogatz-interview-on-math-education-2016-6?r=US&IR=T

also:

the "generous" Charlie
http://inkpi.blogspot.it/2005/06/1668-ramificata-tinnula-di-carmina.html

the "predator" Donald
http://flashontrack.blogspot.it/2016/05/p-usa-potus-race-donald-what-he-can-do.html

# p-usa: #POTUS race: Donald, what he can do (PS)

PS: a proposito dell'ipotetico Donald, gambler in performance "tit-for-tat" a  modalita' stocastica/ quasistocastica

http://flashontrack.blogspot.it/2016/05/p-usa-potus-race-donald-what-he-can-do.html

anche un osservatore con titoli in neuropsichiatria verra' indirizzato nei suoi giudizi su tracce  erronee, fuorvianti, perche' l'ipotetico Donald, gambler che sa giocare "al buio", percio' gambler "di talento", in tali scenari assumera' piu' o meno consapevolmente comportamenti da leader Alfa, creativo, con spunti aciclicamente oscillanti, senza tuttavia da questi esserne realmente condizionato; tali comportamenti sono fascinosi, attrattivi, perturbativi,  generano inattesi vortici,  percio' sembrano  riscuotere cosi' tanto successo all'interno di numericamente importanti e trasversali sottoinsiemi delle variegate Moltitudini, tra i quali quelli che votano.

Una intelligenza artificiale, anche di media forza, compulsando e miscelando in tempo reale neuropsichiatria, studi affini e dirette osservazioni nel reale (IoT), questa cosa qui la capira' da subito, anzicheforse ...

# p-usa: #POTUS race: Donald, what he can do (with less than four lines ...)

Michael Wolraich. What Game Theory Tells Us About Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton is tasked with outwitting the human equivalent of a four-line computer program. May 11, 2016

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/what-game-theory-tells-us-about-donald-trump-20160511

FonT: non con quattro ma con solo una riga di programma si puo' generare una stringa di numeri "random", nell'intervallo 0-2 ad es, per usarla " in modalita' meccanica seriale" allo scopo di assistere  nelle decisioni ogni qualvolta un ipotetico attore/ gambler (Donald in questo caso) si trovi di fronte a un interlocutore che per suo giudizio non e'/si ipotizzi non sara'/ con lui cooperativo; il valore 0 potrebbe indirizzare Donald verso una reazione di bassa intensita' (indipendentemente dai propositi dell'interlocutore non cooperativo) mentre il valore 2 verso una elevata estrema risposta negativa/ ostile; solo una intelligenza artificiale puo' accorgersi che: (1) il gambler Donald sta usando una strategia pan-per-focaccia (tit-for-tat); (2) la intensita' di risposta all'interlocutore non dipendera' da quanto l'interlocutore gli e' ostile ma dai valori della sequenza di zero-due ...; emicrania assicurata per chiunque intenda  capire il suo comportamento ...; dal professionista in politologie all'illuminato  in teoria dei giochi  ...; in merito alle "quattro righe di programma" anni fa avevo scritto in fortran (con forse qualche riga in piu' di quattro) un programma che iterava l'eq. logistica; usando l'output di una logistica (per certi valori dei parms) un ipotetico Donald potrebbe avere il vezzo di ottenere stessi risultati con serialita' numerica generata meccanicamente anziche' in modalita' casuale; infine, a zero righe di programma, il medesimo ipotetico Donald potrebbe semplicemente lanciare una monetina (o un dado) per avere in tempo reale  le modalita' di comportamento (e di intensita' se usa un dado) da usare nei confronti del non/ supposto non/ cooperatore e ottenere nell'interlocutore e nell'osservatore confrontabili livelli di disorientamento (qui i due estremi: era modicamente non cooperatore e ha ricevuto come reazione una "bastonata"; era assolutamente ostile e ha ricevuto la classica "pacca sulla spalla" ...).

a proposito, qui una poesiola (quasistocastica) scritta anni fa sul tema "tit-for-tat" e, a quanto vedo, sempre attuale ...

Thursday, June 09, 2005
1668 - ramificata tinnula (di carmina fluitantia)

http://inkpi.blogspot.it/2005/06/1668-ramificata-tinnula-di-carmina.html

# n-behav: #POTUS race: the three steps of reaction

<< The Late Show team also had a surprise for viewers ... >>

<< At the top of his show, Colbert also illustrated how most people reacted to Trump's presidential candidacy: laughing at his initial announcement, drinking heavily after news of his big primary wins and laughing maniacally when Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee. >>

Hilary Lewis. Cartoon Donald Trump, Stephen Colbert Deliver 'Hunger Games'-Inspired Farewell to Ted Cruz, John Kasich. 9:44 AM PDT 5/5/2016

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/stephen-colberts-hungry-power-games-890957

# s-usa: RAGtime revisited inside last #POTUS races: past ("pulsatile") trick, THEN treat, THEN ... (?)

Dara  Lind. One  chart  that  proves  Donald Trump  and  Bernie  Sanders's  voters aren't  the  same. March  31,  2016,  1:50  p.m.  ET

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/31/11338806/trump-sanders-populism-voters

Pew Research Center. March 31, 2016

http://www.people-press.org/2016/03/31/campaign-exposes-fissures-over-issues-values-and-how-life-has-changed-in-the-u-s/

2152 - RAG-time revisited
Monday, February 18, 2008

RAG: Ralph, Al, George

http://inkpi.blogspot.it/2008/02/2152-rag-time-revisited.html

# p-USA: #POTUS race, a POEtic justice ...

<< There's  poetic  justice  in  Trump's  rise  to  the  top  of  the  GOP  presidential  field.  The  GOP  is reaping  precisely  what  it  has  sown. >>

Dave  Pruett. From  the  Party  of  Abe  to  the  Party  of  Donald. 03/24/2016  07:46  pm  ET

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/from-the-party-of-lincoln_b_9535034.html

# s-game: #POTUS race turned into a game theory experiment ...

<< Zollman [Kevin  Zollman, Carnegie  Mellon University] notes being among the first to endorse a candidate who is best positioned  to  win  has its  advantages.  “You  get more credibility,”  he  said.  “I  want to  endorse  early  so  I can say, ‘I was there first’  —  the political  version  of  being  a hipster.” >>

<< That’s  what game theorists call  “costly  signaling,”  a  concession  an  individual makes to indicate greater  strength. Academics  have  theorized  that  the  sharing  of food  in  hunter-gatherer  societies  might  not  be  primarily  altruistic,  but  rather  a chance for the best hunters to show off their skills,  and  thereby  move up in the reproductive  pecking  order. >>

<< But  that  was  before  the  2016 race turned into a game theory experiment, where true feelings are set aside for the purpose of a single  mathematical  result. >>

Andrew McGill. The Anti-Trump Endorsement Game. The mathematical strategy behind endorsing Ted Cruz, as explained by game theory. The  Atlantic. March 25, 2016

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/trump-cruz-kasich-endorsement/475230/ 

<< (..) another  turn  of  the  cards  in  a  game  that  refuses  to  conform  to  old  rules.  The winner  will  be  the  candidate  who  figures  out  the  new  ones. >>

Andrew  McGill. The Game  Theory  Principles  Behind  a  Political Endorsement  Against  Trump. The  Atlantic. March  27,  2016.

http://m.govexec.com/oversight/on-politics/2016/03/game-theory-principles-behind-political-endorsement-against-trump/126971/

# s-game: a "Colonel Blotto" approach inside a POTUS election: however, the behavior of individuals is not yet well understood ...

<< A team of computer scientists (..) is the first to solve a game theory scenario that has vexed researchers for nearly a century. The game, known as "Colonel Blotto," has been used to analyze the potential outcomes of elections and other similar two-party conflicts since its invention in 1921.>>

<< This solution enabled the team to develop a generalized algorithm, which can now be applied to specific scenarios, such as the 2016 presidential election. >>

<< From presidential elections to marketing decisions, competition for attention and loyalty is a part of daily life. However, the behavior of individuals in response to such competitions is not yet well understood >>

http://phys.org/news/2016-02-team-well-known-game-theory-scenario.html

AmirMahdi Ahmadinejad, Sina Dehghani, et al. From Duels to Battlefields: Computing Equilibria of Blotto and Other Game. Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) Conference in Phoenix, Arizona, February 15, 2016.

http://www.aaai.org/Conferences/conferences.php

more:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blotto_games

# p-usa: Donald, a probabilistic proto- POTUS' transcript

<< A woman in the audience yelled out that Cruz is a pussy, and he repeated it. he also pointed out it shouldn't be said, and she shouldn't say it ... >>

LesGrossman2015. Donald Trump Calls Ted Cruz A Pussy. Published on Feb 8, 2016

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UHcD5-TGHvY