# life: Black Death way revisited, the hypothesis, by Parag.

<< Good afternoon to everyone online and in the room. (..) Since yesterday, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Netherlands and Nigeria have all reported their first cases. All these cases have links to Italy. 24 cases have been exported from Italy to 14 countries, and 97 cases have been exported from Iran to 11 countries. >>  

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19. WHO. Feb 28, 2020.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---28-february-2020

<< A striking overlap exists between the path of today's viral spread and the path of the Black Death in the 1300s. >>

<< It is, of course, far too soon to make such dire predictions about Covid-19. But a striking overlap exists between the path of today's viral spread and the path that emerged in the 1300s. >>

<< The 14th-century plague is said to have originated in northwestern China, with bacteria contracted from marmots. Hebei Province bore the brunt of China’s plague fatalities, with 5 million of its residents perishing in the 1330s. Making its way westward via Silk Road merchants and caravans, the plague took several years to reach Persia, where it killed the Khan overlord Abu Said as well as half the population. In 1347, it entered Europe via Italy’s port of Genoa. >>

<< Now compare that to what we’re seeing today with Covid-19. This time around, the source of illness may have been pangolins or bats instead of marmots. It started in Wuhan, which just happens to be Hebei's capital. The coronavirus reached Iran in a couple of weeks, and so far has infected hundreds of people, even the country’s deputy health minister. Next to Iran, the next worst outbreak is in Italy, with more than 300 cases and rising quickly- and likely spreading through Europe exactly as the plague did centuries ago. >>

<< It is, perhaps no coincidence that, in the past two decades, China has been the origin of SARS, the swine flu, and now the Covid-19 coronavirus. Nor should we be surprised that Iran and Italy have emerged, once more, as waypoints for pandemic spread. What do Iran and Italy have in common today? They are two major anchors of China’s Belt and Road Initiative- also known as the 21st century’s new Silk Roads. >>

Parag Khanna. IDEAS. Covid-19 Is Traveling Along the New Silk Road. Wired. Feb 28, 2020.

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-is-traveling-along-the-new-silk-road/

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