# gst: tipping in a low-dimensional model of a (tropical) cyclone.

 <<Tipping is the rapid, and often irreversible, change in the state of a system [Ashwin P. et al (2017)] >> 

AA << present a case study of both rate and noise-induced tipping between the stable states, relating to the destabilization or formation of a tropical cyclone. While the stochastic system exhibits transitions both to and from the non-storm state, noise-induced tipping is more likely to form a storm, whereas rate-induced tipping is more likely to be the way a storm is destabilized, and in fact, rate-induced tipping can never lead to the formation of a storm when acting alone. For rate-induced tipping acting as a destabilizer of the storm, a striking result is that both wind shear and maximal potential velocity have to increase, at a substantial rate, in order to effect tipping away from the active hurricane state. For storm formation through noise-induced tipping, (AA) identify a specific direction along which the non-storm state is most likely to get activated. >> 

Katherine Slyman, John A. Gemmer, et al. Tipping in a Low-Dimensional Model of a Tropical Cyclone. arXiv: 2307.15583v1 [math.DS]. Jul 28, 2023.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.15583

 

Also: vortex, instability, noise, in https://www.inkgmr.net/kwrds.html

Keywords: gst, climate, storm, cyclone, vortex, noise, tipping, noise-induced tipping