# behav: even the first asynchronous decisions might tend to be correct and exhibit information cascades.

<< It is usually assumed that information cascades are most likely to occur when an early but incorrect opinion spreads through the group. Here (AA) analyse models of confidence-sharing in groups and reveal the opposite result: simple but plausible models of naïve Bayesian decision-making exhibit information cascades when group decisions are synchronous; however, when group decisions are asynchronous, the early decisions reached by Bayesian decision makers tend to be correct, and dominate the group consensus dynamics. Thus early decisions actually rescue the group from making errors, rather than contribute to it. (AA) explore the likely realism of our assumed decision-making rule with reference to the evolution of mechanisms for aggregating social information, and known psychological and neuroscientific mechanisms. >>️

Andreagiovanni Reina, Thomas Bose, et al.  Asynchrony rescues statistically-optimal group decisions from information cascades through emergent leaders.  bioRxiv. doi: 10.1101/ 2022.04.05.487127. Feb16, 2023.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.04.05.487127v3

Also

'asynchronous' in FonT

https://flashontrack.blogspot.com/search?q=asynchronous

'game' in FonT

https://flashontrack.blogspot.com/search?q=game

'behav' in FonT

https://flashontrack.blogspot.com/search?q=behav

Keywords: behavior, behaviour, game, decision-making, synchronous- asynchronous group decisions, social interactions, information cascade, life, jazz

# behav: unfrequent events under radical uncertainty; rats tend to avoid black swan situations.

AA << present a novel experimental design that aims at measuring the extent to which animal subjects are sensitive to rare and extreme events and, in addition, how rats respond to those very unfrequent events under radical uncertainty. (..) the novelty of (AA) design is that it provides two direct measures that help interpreting (..) behavioral data: Total Sensitivity to Rare and Extreme Events, and One-sided Sensitivity to Rare and Extreme Events with Black-Swan Avoidance/Jackpot-Seeking behaviors as limiting cases. >>️

<< First, most rats (..) can be grouped into a moderate to high Total Sensitivity group. This means that most rats diversify their choices across options in such a way that they more often rely on convex ones than on concave ones overall. Therefore, they tend to seek extreme gains/Jackpots and to avoid extreme losses/ Black Swans. In addition, most rats (..) tend to exhibit Black Swan Avoidance, which indicates that, given Total Sensitivity, they tend to try more often to avoid Black Swans than to seek Jackpots. (AA) interpret such a behavior as significant aversion towards uncertainty about rare and extreme losses.  >>️

<< all rats diversify their choices across a set of options, which is reminiscent of observed behaviors such as, for example, bet-hedging in animals and financial portfolio strategies used by humans >>

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<< results from similar experiments among different species might be of interest for the analysis of neurobiological substrates involved in decision-making and its evolutionary traits in the context of rare and extreme events. >>️

Mickael Degoulet, Louis-Matis Willem, et al. Decision-Making in Rats is Sensitive to Rare and Extreme Events: the Black Swan Avoidance. bioRxiv 10.1101/2021.11.01.466806v1. Nov 04, 2021. 

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.01.466806v1

 Keywords: behav, game, decision-making, bet-hedging, trading, uncertainty, gain, loss, black swan 

# brain: a broad range of decision-making abilities, the 'decision acuity'

<< A common factor called "decision acuity" underpins diverse decision-making abilities in adolescents and young adults, (..) is stable over time, distinct from IQ, and reduced in individuals with low general social functioning. >>️

<< decision acuity predicted patterns of correlated activity among opercular cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, and somatosensory and motor areas -- brain regions previously linked to decision-making.  >>️

Independent of IQ, 'decision acuity' predicts broad range of decision-making abilities. Cell Press. May 20, 2021.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/05/210520133924.htm

<< Decision acuity was decreased in those with aberrant thinking and low general social functioning. Crucially, decision acuity and IQ had dissociable brain signatures, in terms of their associated neural networks of resting-state functional connectivity. >>

Michael Moutoussis, Benjamín Garzón, et al. Decision-making ability,  psychopathology, and brain connectivity. Neuron. doi: 10.1016/ j.neuron.2021.04.019. May 20, 2021.

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https://www.cell.com/neuron/fulltext/S0896-6273(21)00285-3

Also

keyword 'decision-making' in PubMed:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=decision-making