# gst: early warning skill, extrapolation and tipping for accelerating cascades; if the upstream system crosses a tipping point, this can shorten the timescale of valid extrapolation.

AA << investigate how nonlinear behaviour (both of forcing in time and of the system itself) can affect the skill of early warning signals to predict tipping in (directionally) coupled bistable systems when using measures based on critical slowing down due to the breakdown of extrapolation. (They) quantify the skill of early warnings with a time horizon using a receiver-operator methodology for ensembles where noise realisations and parameters are varied to explore the role of extrapolation and how it can break down. >>

AA << highlight cases where this can occur in an accelerating cascade of tipping elements, where very slow forcing of a slowly evolving ``upstream'' system forces a more rapidly evolving ``downstream'' system. If the upstream system crosses a tipping point, this can shorten the timescale of valid extrapolation. >>

<< In particular, ``downstream-within-upstream'' tipping will typically have warnings only on a timescale comparable to the duration of the upstream tipping process, rather than the timescale of the original forcing. >>

Peter Ashwin, Robbin Bastiaansen, et al. Early warning skill, extrapolation and tipping for accelerating cascades.arXiv: 2506.01981v1 [nlin.CD]. May 16, 2025.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.01981

Also: crack, fracture, noise, track changes in noise, in https://www.inkgmr.net/kwrds.html 

Keywords: gst, climate, early warning, tipping prediction, accelerating cascade, crossing a tipping point, multiple tipping points, fragmented tipping, criticality, noise, noise-induced tipping, crack, fracture

# gst: tipping in a low-dimensional model of a (tropical) cyclone.

 <<Tipping is the rapid, and often irreversible, change in the state of a system [Ashwin P. et al (2017)] >> 

AA << present a case study of both rate and noise-induced tipping between the stable states, relating to the destabilization or formation of a tropical cyclone. While the stochastic system exhibits transitions both to and from the non-storm state, noise-induced tipping is more likely to form a storm, whereas rate-induced tipping is more likely to be the way a storm is destabilized, and in fact, rate-induced tipping can never lead to the formation of a storm when acting alone. For rate-induced tipping acting as a destabilizer of the storm, a striking result is that both wind shear and maximal potential velocity have to increase, at a substantial rate, in order to effect tipping away from the active hurricane state. For storm formation through noise-induced tipping, (AA) identify a specific direction along which the non-storm state is most likely to get activated. >> 

Katherine Slyman, John A. Gemmer, et al. Tipping in a Low-Dimensional Model of a Tropical Cyclone. arXiv: 2307.15583v1 [math.DS]. Jul 28, 2023.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.15583

 

Also: vortex, instability, noise, in https://www.inkgmr.net/kwrds.html

Keywords: gst, climate, storm, cyclone, vortex, noise, tipping, noise-induced tipping

# gst: as a Lorenz's butterfly, even small disturbances can trigger catastrophic storms

<< meteorologists still have questions about how hurricanes develop. Now, Florida State University researchers have found that even the smallest changes in atmospheric conditions could trigger a hurricane, >>

Researchers find even small disturbances can trigger catastrophic storms. Florida State University. May 13, 2020.

https://phys.org/news/2020-05-small-disturbances-trigger-catastrophic-storms.html   

Jacob D. Carstens,  Allison A. Wing. Tropical Cyclogenesis From Self‐Aggregated Convection in Numerical Simulations of Rotating Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. Vol 12, Issue 5. doi: 10.1029/ 2019MS002020. Apr 24, 2020.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019MS002020   

Also

Edward Lorenz. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. Vol.20 130—141. 1963. in:  Lynn M. Resler. Edward N Lorenz’s 1963 paper, “Deterministic nonperiodic flow”, in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol 20, pages 130–141: Its history and relevance to physical geography. Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment. Vol 40 issue 1,  175-180. doi: 10.1177/ 0309133315623099. Jan 21, 2016. 

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0309133315623099

# life: the fate of humans and insects intertwine

<< The fate of humans and insects intertwine, especially through the medium of plants. >>

Michael J.Samways, Philip S.Barton, et al. Solutions for humanity on how to conserve insects. Biological Conservation. Volume 242, 108427,  Review. Feb 9, 2020.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320719317793

Damian Carrington. Fates of humans and insects intertwined, warn scientists. Experts call for solutions to be enforced immediately to halt global population collapses. Feb 20, 2020.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/20/fates-humans-insects-intertwined-scientists-population-collapse

Also

the beetle Carabaeus lamarcki, dancer and sky analyzer.  May 14, 2016.

https://flashontrack.blogspot.com/2016/05/s-behav-beetle-carabaeus-lamarcki.html